After more than four months of waiting, the designate Prime Minister Najib Mikati has announced today his new government lineup in Lebanon. One thing strikes any observer straight away is to why this formation took so long. The majority of the newly appointed ministers are part of or affiliated with March 8 alliance. Many thought forming this new government should accordingly take only 24 hours (the previous government resignation was branded by March 14 as a Hezbollah coup d’etat)
The Druze MP Talal Arslan has resigned hours after the government announcement in protest of not getting a main portfolio; he believes that his demand will help to break the recent monopoly of the main ‘big’ sects in Lebanon for the main ministries. Other ‘prominent’ facts of the government are the zero share going for women, and unequal Shia/Sunni shares – which is not common.
Many people are calling this government as ‘one-sided’ and the Syrian regime’s, or Hezbollah’s for the obvious reasons; I have no doubt that this government is following the ’Syrian theme and sense’, but when I look deeper into the numbers, I can see an amplified view of the balance of powers in it.
Aoun is the biggest winner: March 8 (Hezbollah, General Michel Aoun, and other allies) has 18 ministers of 30, and rest is distributed between President Michel Suleiman, PM Najib Mikati, and the Druze MP Walid Jumblatt. This leaves March 8 with a clear majority stake in the government.
Now if I consider another direction of categorisation, and look at the ‘top performing’ single shares in the new government, I can count 10 ministers to General Aoun i.e. third of the Lebanese government. Moreover, Aoun agreed with Suleiman on the ‘joker’ minister, known as the ‘super-minister‘ (the Interior Minister Marwan Charbel); this leaves Aoun - technically speaking – with a veto power or even the power dissolve the government on his own, if he can pull this joker towards him (as March 8 just did with ex-PM Saad Hariri with the ‘joker’ minister between the President and Hezbollah)
Having a Sunni share bigger than the Shia’s, shows the sacrifices Hezbollah & Amal are willing to undertake, to face Hariri and hold onto Mikati, and hopefully increase his Sunni popularity. PM Najib Mikati has the second biggest share with six ministers (including himself). This leaves both Aoun and Mikati with a majority stake too, combined in the government.
There is no doubt that this government has been formed according to Hezbollah conditions, which everyone in it signed up to, but I can’t help to conclude that Aoun and Mikati earned a big price for this.
Hariri dynasty continues: as strange as it may sounds, but I can see the Hariri dynasty (father and son) continuing in the new Lebanese government. I mean by that the Hariri policies, its economical policies (liberalism, less regulation, privatisation) which was adopted by ex-PM Rafik Hairi since he came to power in 1992. Najib Mikati hold the same background as Hariri; he is a business tycoon that March 8 accepted to deal with. Hezbollah is clear on what it wants from Mikati (protection of its arms, and facing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – STL); in return, it has to give Mikati something back – the economy.
Keeping this in mind, March 8 (mainly Aoun) has the hardest challenge since they were formed or came to the scene. Soon, they won’t be able to blame the previous Hariri policies, and as time progresses, their argument against the previous Hariri policies will weaken. they are in charge now, and responsible for steering the economy, cleaning up the state and politics from corruption. It goes without saying that the new lineup could ultimately end up in an explosive manner, especially that it took so long to announce a government we almost knew all its members-to-be.
Many March 14 politicians, and their followers have attacked Mikati on the new government. Contrarian to their views – and assuming Saad Hariri is forming this government in the same supporting numbers of MPs as Mikati - I don’t think Hariri would have got a better ‘deal’ for his political March 14 (just replace Mikati’s share with a one for Hariri). I think the best thing for March 14 now is to watch March 8 governing, and to work as an ‘effective’ opposition (this week’s Facebook blocking for MPs should help them to do so, although revolutions are being steered from FB!)
General Michel Aoun, proved again that if he sticks to his stance, he will get his ‘asking price’ even if that led to the world to stop spinning.
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How is Hezbollah leading if it has 2 of the seats? It is a colonialist perspective that makes you negate Lebanese nationalists and the lead they now have in Lebanon. You insist that we, natives of the ex-colonies are either the “feuding natives” or the colonial property of Iran, Saudi Arabia (whom Michael Young, an American journalist recycled to Lebanon, calls “sponsors), US, Syria. The choice of the day varies, but what is consistent is that colonialists negate our intellect, and our now strong national identity. We are PRO-LEBANON, and our nationalism emerged during the Lebanese spring, which happened in 1989, championed by Gen. Michel Aoun. It’ is amusing you think we will be controlled by Syria, when we in fact believe we have a destiny to culturally and idealogically invade the entire middle east, and change to become more like us. Why do you think we celebrated in Lebanon when Egypt was finally on the same page as us, and Tunis. If you leave your bow tie and come out of your ivory tower, you would know that Lebanon is already a cultural power house in the Arabic world. We’d like influence Israel too, but they’re a long way from dropping their religious segregation for the civil law that the patriotic party proposed in Lebanon. It’s the first law of its kind in the middle east; it defines people of all religions and both genders as equals, by law. When you bring up the smoke screen “Hezbollah”, aren’t you actually lamenting the fact that we can no longer be divided and conquered, because we’re now free to establish equality in our Lebanese system?
that comment… I meant for the globe and mail article, and wrote it on your blog mistaking it for their page. That being said, it’s relevant to parts of your article!
No problem, I sensed that! But how it’s relevant to my article? What you wrote is not mentioned in the post.
I am not attacking Aoun, I am just analyzing the numbers and sentiment.
Good article Zak, but I disagree with your closing comment:
“General Michel Aoun, proved again that if he sticks to his stance, he will get his ‘asking price’ even if that led to the world to stop spinning.”
Yes indeed Aoun got 10 ministers, with his favourite protege in the Ministry of Elec. and Water, but this was always the offer on the table since day 1. If we recall his “demands or battles” during the formation of the government, one can see that he didn’t get (nearly) any of them. Just few examples:
1- He wanted 12+ ministers based on his bloc’s share of the new majority – failed
2- Then he asked for the 1/3+1 majority – partly failed
3- He wanted the interior ministry – failed
4- He wanted to keep Charbel Nahas as telecommunication minister – failed
5- He didn’t want the president to have any ministers – failed
6- He didn’t want the president to name ministers from Kesserwan or Jbeil – failed
7- He wanted to name his ministers, without any say for Mikati or Sulaiman – failed
8- He wanted to pre-approve the President’s ministers – failed except of 1 (interior minister)
9- He even asked at some point to have the finance ministry – failed
It could be that his demands delayed the formation of the government, but it was a waste of time without major returns.
Thanks Charbel for your comment, quite informative. I agree on your observations, which I see were part of the ‘negotiations game’. Aoun settled on a bit less than what he wanted, but still considerable. Point taken on the ‘closing statement’, but probably I was trying to emphasize that the world stopped spinning
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