Tag Archives: March 14

Is This The ‘Government of Assassination’?

24 Wednesday Oct 2012

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Fouad Siniora:

The Lebanese people won’t accept, after today, the continuation of the government of assassination

In a half-civilised country, if a cat was killed in the same way as Wissam Al-Hassan was killed, a government or at least a minister would resign. So no question what should happen when a security chief gets bombed.

But let’s be honest here, Lebanon is an abnormal farm that makes such a move a high-risk venture with unknown consequences. At its best, we could be looking at political vacuum. At its worst, we are taking about sectarian civil war here. And this message was clearly passed on by the US and EU that they don’t mind this Hezbollah-controlled government to keep going.

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Wissam Al-Hassan Joins The Assassination Saga

20 Saturday Oct 2012

Posted by in Arab World, LB Politics, Lebanon, Media Monitoring, Other Arab issues, Press

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Here we go again. Another Lebanese national figure and innocent people are wasted. Together with reportedly eight others, the head of the Information Branch in the Internal Security Forces (police) in Lebanon Wissam Al-Hassan have been assassinated yesterday in a street bomb in Achrafieh in Beirut.

Early on, I warned and speculated that Saad Hariri could pay a high price for his leading involvement in Syria, and it may now be the payback time. And I feel we are just at the start of something bigger.

Sadly we got used to this terrorist method of political elimination since 2004. This is the 26th political explosion since then, with most ending as assassinations. Ten of these 26 explosions targeted anti-Syrian regime figures, two targeted Information Branch figures (anti-Syrian regime), other ten targeted areas largely known to be Christian, three targeted the Lebanese Army including a military chief, and one explosion targeted a non-leading but senior official in a pro-Syrian party.

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Lebanese Forces Show Their Comfort Zone in Public

24 Friday Aug 2012

Posted by in LB Politics, LB Social, Lebanon, Media Monitoring, TV

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It was not long time ago when I declared the death of the political peaceful argument of March 14. Now, I can ‘safely’ declare the near-completion of their combating formations. All what you need to do to know this, is to watch the festival that took place yesterday by the Lebanese Forces in commemoration of the 30th anniversary election of Bashir Gemayel as a President.

I was gobsmacked to watch a ‘Lebanese Resistance Anthems Concert’ (on MTV) glorifying the military past of the Lebanese Forces and Bashir Gemayel – after all their current talk about the peaceful resistance and building the state. Although it didn’t look very odd with the current chaotic mood and high sectarian tensions in the country. It did actually blend well in that scene…

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Replace The Lebanese National Dialogue Table With a Double Decker Bus

25 Monday Jun 2012

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As I write this post, Lebanese leaders start their discussions at Baabda Palace in the second session of this round of Lebanese National Dialogue. This round started earlier this month with more than a year of stoppage. Subject of today? Hezbollah’s arms!

Looking at the format of the meeting and the faces of the 17 participants or whatever the number is, I laugh out loudly (that’s LOL!). So Agob Pakradounian, Jean Ogasapian, Farid Makari and others are going to be the people to convince Hezbollah to give up his arms?

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The Sabotage of Hariri’s Leadership and The Death Of March 14

22 Tuesday May 2012

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Within a matter of days, the Hariri’s Future Movement has shifted its rhetoric from the injustice the Lebanese people live in due to the control of Hezbollah, to the injustice and “persecution” – as Mohammad Salam put it – the Sunni sect is facing.

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STL funding: everyone is a winner except March14!

02 Friday Dec 2011

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What an end for a story climax, the completion of challenge of the 2011 funding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). It ended peacefully this time, with the least damages possible to all parties concerned, by the announcement of PM Najib Mikati on Wednesday 30th November 2011 that he wired the required $32m to the STL. No further details were given; he told us that he just did it! No news where the money came from and how. Rumours spread that it will be covered from donations, or from the High Commission for Relief (HRC) budget, or may be from some dodgy black box type account! Anyway, HRC denied the news that it was funding the STL from its budget, but I couldn’t think of a better relief to avoid a better disaster!
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A campaign to bring Lebanese war criminals to justice

08 Saturday Oct 2011

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Lebanon’s civil war ended in 1989 with a collective agreement between the different fighting factions, aided by an international patronage from Saudi Arabia, United States and Syria. The agreement, which was annexed to the country’s constitution, was called the Taef Accord, referring to the area where the meeting was held in Saudi Arabia. Syria kept a strong influence afterwards until 2005, when its army withdrew from Lebanon.

At the time, the fighting factions compromised, accepted removing military presence and dismantling their militias structures, but they did that on one condition in return: sharing power. It was the easiest method (in theory) to stop the war, to hand power to the warlords. The civil war was actually a mini-global war fought by local pawns. It was fueled by the Lebanese internal divisions, but the United States, Soviet Union, Israel, Palestinians, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libya had direct interests (or presence) in Lebanon’s war.

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How Almustaqbal spins the Wikileaks content

26 Monday Sep 2011

Posted by in LB Politics, Lebanon, Media Monitoring, Politics, Press, Wikileaks

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The Lebanese daily newspaper Almustaqbal reported today that the head of Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) General Michel Aoun referred to Hezbollah as a ‘terrorist organisation’ in one of the Wikileaks cables (06Beirut413). Other media outlets reported the story referring to Almustaqbal, and one of them was Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International (LBCI) where I read this piece news (on their website).

Almustaqbal newspaper is owned by the political opponent and Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. If this is true, it will be a blow to the current alliance that exists between Michel Aoun and Hezbollah.

Actually, I read this cable before Almustaqbal, and soon after its release. I decided then NOT to blog about it, as I didn’t find anything unusual or already not available in the public domain.

There is a huge amount of spin added to the reporting on Wikileaks cables. Some journalists are taking some cables out of context to serve their political inclinations and objectives. This blog aims to uncover as many cables as possible, irrespective of the political party being damaged from the leaked cable. And consequently, Lebanon Spring will ‘name and shame’ any media outlet adding their own spin to the story.
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STL indictment out, Hezbollah accused…& life goes on

17 Wednesday Aug 2011

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…and here we are, we asked for it, we got it; the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has just published the ‘secret’ details of the indictment of the suspects in Rafik Hariri (which were previously said to be Hezbollah members).

It will be ‘interesting’ to see how the two sides March8 and March14 will study the details, but it seems for me that the indictment focused only on the phone calls data analysis. This means that despite the analysis work which makes perfect sense in the ideal world, Hezbollah has another excuse to deny the whole indictment. In other words, and as far as an internal consensus on the issue, we are going nowhere with this indictment.

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We have a Dracula party among us in Lebanon

09 Tuesday Aug 2011

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Expanding on the conspiracy saga, and in a TV interview yesterday the former Brigadier General Amin Hoteit (or Amine Hotait), the Lebanese pro-Hezbollah political and military analyst, said this:

…the mission of this Lebanese political movement [implying Hariri's Future Movement] is funding with $2m the rape operations for the Christian and Alawite women in Syria, and of dumping them afterwards naked in the streets.

This is the most horrific and serious accusation I have ever heard in my life in the dirty Lebanese political ‘game’; it doesn’t even top facts from the crazy Lebanese civil war, or outcomes of the widest imagination of a science fiction Hollywood director (usually, there is some science to the fiction though).

Mr. Hoteit doesn’t seem to be inciting hatred or sectarian violence at all. The accused party could expand their plans and hurt all of us; they must be drug dealing, human trafficking and blood trading too. Shouldn’t they? Surely, we should save the planet from this Dracula party.

Shouldn’t Lebanon’s General Prosecutor invite Mr. Hoteit for a ‘cup of coffee’ (or finjein 2ahwi) to validate his evidence?

Thanks for Tayyar.org and OTV for helping the planet by letting the General expose these criminals, and reporting his statements.

Mr. Hoteit gained stardom in 2000 during the demarcation of the blue line with Israel. So keep an eye on him, he is a potential high-flyer…

Walid Jumblatt’s reincarnation(s)

30 Saturday Jul 2011

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If you are confused by where Druze Leader MP Walid Jumblatt stands on the Lebanese political scale, then you are not alone. Even his political allies and opponents (or ex-oppenents and ex-allies if that makes sense) are finding it difficult to categorize Jumblatt’s position.

I personally I have my own theory about it; Walid Jumblatt left March14 alliance to March8 alliance, but kept its ideology! In other words, Jumblatt knew he can’t win on March8, so he prefered to join them for now, but kept his soft criticism to them inline with his previous speech. ‘Mechanically’, you can say this is similar to human reincarnation, which is part the Druze beliefs! It happens when the same spirit moves from one body to another after death…

In this way, Jumblatt would have prepared the ground for another U-turn, just in case. But Jumblatt’s endless contradictory remarks reached an extent where they appear in the same news article now, check this:

Jumblatt stressed on Monday the importance of the equation of the army, people, and Resistance…

…The weapons must be gradually incorporated in the official armed forces, since using [non-state] arms domestically is an adventure that can never succeed, no matter what the circumstances are [from the editorial of the PSP Al-Anbaa magazine]

There is a difference between: a guy trying to fix an issue between two women, and going out with these two women. Jumblatt is going out with both sides now, but his tongue will slip at some point. And I think there is a strong link between this is happening, and the turn of events in Syria.

If Jumbllat’s history is not full of U-turns, I would have said he really wants justice for Rafiq Hariri, stability in Lebanon, and reforms in Syria – irrespective of the local, regional and international balance of powers.

Special Tribunal for Lebanon indictment is here: Observations

30 Thursday Jun 2011

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The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has issued its indictment to the Lebanese authorities today. STL was formed in The Hague by the United National Security Council in 2007 through the 1757 Resolution. Its remit is to investigate and try the responsible for the assassination of the Lebanese Prime Minister then Rafiq Hariri, and others who died with him on February 14th 2005.

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Typical Lebanese conversation after Nasrallah’s ‘espionage’ speech

25 Saturday Jun 2011

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March8er: I always told you that Hezbollah is a continuous target for Mossad and CIA.

March14er: and you always said that Hezbollah was immune from spies infiltration. Spying was always a characteristic of others.

March8er: yes, but Hezbollah was efficient and exposed their 3 internal spies, including a confirmed one for the CIA. They were honest about it and admitted it.

March14er: honest? the American Embassy in Beirut denied the accusations.

March8er: of course man, what do you expect them to say? yes, this our man who was caught?! All American embassies are centres for espionage.

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A background to Berri’s sacrifice in forming the new government

21 Tuesday Jun 2011

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Speaker Nabih Berri facilitated the formation of the new government in Lebanon last week, by accepting to reduce the ‘Shia share’ by 1 seat to 5, allowing the Sunni’s share to be increased to 7 seats in a 30 ministers cabinet.

This is the first time since the Taef Agreement (that mostly ended the civil war) in 1989 that the Sunni and Shia shares are not equal. This precedent was called a ‘sacrifice’ by Berri’s allies, while others were less enthusiastic about it; mostly Christian figures who had some reservations about it (from March 8 & March 14).

Although almost all Lebanese politicians aspire publicly to end the sectarian quotas in the state, but they don’t miss any opportunity to cling onto them, as the current system guarantees their own sustainability. Although Berri’s move is surely not motivated by this aim, but I think this precedent is not bad in this respect. It’s ‘ok’ for our sect to take less than others. Moreover, our constitution requires a 50/50 split between Christianity and Islam in the state appointments (government and others), but it doesn’t say much on the distribution within the same religion between the different sects; the rest is usually done according to conventions. That said, I don’t usually crow about things Nahib Berri does: my previous posts say that: ‘The 60 years of Nabih Berri‘. or ‘Wondering what Lebanon’s problem is?‘
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The new Aounist Lebanese government

13 Monday Jun 2011

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After more than four months of waiting, the designate Prime Minister Najib Mikati has announced today his new government lineup in Lebanon. One thing strikes any observer straight away is to why this formation took so long. The majority of the newly appointed ministers are part of or affiliated with March 8 alliance. Many thought forming this new government should accordingly take only 24 hours (the previous government resignation was branded by March 14 as a Hezbollah coup d’etat)
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The 60 years of Nabih Berri

04 Saturday Jun 2011

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Speaker Nabih Berri, trying to explain why the 2005 Cedars Revolution failed, said this week the following:

the Cedar Revolution has set Lebanon back 60 years legally and demographically, squandered public money, and provided the suitable atmosphere for further foreign intervention in Lebanon’s present and future

When I started commenting on that, I didn’t know where to start really. Let me first say that I am not necessarily defending the Cedars Revolution; but at the same time, I just think it’s fair to put this statement in its context. Continue reading »

Who is the father of the Arab Spring?

13 Friday May 2011

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Mohamad Bouazizi! – a straight forward answer.

Ok, on a more serious note, what’s pushing all these masses to be on the streets? Since the start of the so called ‘Arab Spring’ less than 5 months ago, all analysts have been looking to study the involvement of the Islamic movements (or other ideologies).

This interest spiked after Osama Bin Laden’s death last week, with majority looking to assess its impact on the uprisings (I can even tell from the search engines hits on my previous first Bin Laden post!)

Moreover, many political parties claimed their fatherhood to the freedom demanding protests. Al-Qaeda claimed that the uprisings were the fruits of their struggle against America and the Arab regimes.

The Americans (likely to be Republicans) said that the uprisings were the results of what George W. Bush started in his Iraq invasion in 2003!
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Syrian or Iranian Wikileaks will do

10 Tuesday May 2011

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From all the US diplomacy cables released by Wikileaks related to Lebanon, I can say that almost all Lebanese politicians, opponents or allies to Hezbollah, are wary of them in a way or another.

On the same note, I came across an article about new leaked cable originating from the US Embassy in Damascus – 08DAMASCUS7 – which showed Syria befriending the US diplomacy, offering to do a package deal with the US over the common issues: peace, Hezbollah, Hamas and others.
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Wikileaks and the anti-Hezbollah militias

07 Saturday May 2011

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In my ‘Lebanon, the medieval Ottoman country’ post yesterday, I described 14March leaders as a bunch of sectarian warlords. I was not indicating only to their history during the Lebanese civil war, but rather to their current and recent history in peace time.

These leaders are currently advocating building a civil unarmed society in Lebanon (which is their main argument against Hezbollah), but in reality they do not mind getting armed to fight Hezbollah. I think they surely serve foreign interests in a way or another too, or at least they accept to be used. Let’s be practical here, we know how international politics is conducted, and politicians have to exploit international balances and political opportunities, and this is fine. But to ‘exploit’ opportunities to go back to civil war? I am not sure about that.
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Lebanon, the medieval Ottoman country

06 Friday May 2011

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Although small in its impact, and negligible to starting military clashes in Beirut & Mount Lebanon, but their recent alcohol ban in Nabatiyah showed how Hezbollah are undermining the civil society and law in Lebanon. But my personal problem is that I never really felt that the other side (14March movement) represents my ideals too.

I always saw it as having a choice between the bad and the worse. Or between Coca-Cola and Pepsi, with no option for a cup of water! Hezbollah is a militia that wants the Lebanese society to think similar to them, while the opposite side is a bunch of sectarian warlords that missed many chances before, if not ‘killed’ them.
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